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"Gold" and "Silver" are not merely raw materials for creating exquisite craftsmanship; they are pivotal assets in the investment world, specifically acting as "Safe Havens" amidst global economic volatility. As we step into 2025, a critical question for both industry entrepreneurs and retail investors is: What is the direction for these two precious metals?

 

Gold Bars Investment Outlook 2025

Gold firmly maintains its status as the "King of Safe Havens." The key factors driving gold bar prices in 2025 are as follows:

  • Policy Interest Rates: This is the most critical factor. Global financial markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other major central banks will enter a "Rate Cut Cycle" in 2025, following a period of high rates used to curb inflation.

    • Impact: Lower interest rates reduce the "Opportunity Cost" of holding gold (which yields no interest). Additionally, this often leads to a weakening US Dollar, which directly benefits gold prices in other currencies.

  • Geopolitical Instability: Prolonged conflicts in various regions, along with international trade tensions, continue to support strong demand for gold as a refuge asset.

  • Central Bank Buying: The trend of global central banks—especially in Emerging Markets—gradually reducing reliance on the US Dollar and increasing gold reserves acts as a massive buying force that supports long-term prices.

 

Silver Bars Investment Outlook 2025

Silver is often viewed as gold's "Little Brother," but in 2025, it has unique, standout drivers that make it highly interesting:

  • Industrial Demand: This is silver's highlight. It is a crucial metal for the "Green Transition," where demand is growing exponentially.

    • Solar Panels: Rising global solar installations are driving massive silver consumption.

    • EVs and 5G: As the best electrical conductor, silver is essential for advanced electronic components.

  • Gold-Silver Ratio: Typically, silver moves with gold but with higher volatility. If gold enters a bull market as predicted, silver prices tend to rise more aggressively in percentage terms (a Leveraged Play).

  • Supply Constraints: Experts (e.g., The Silver Institute) predict that rapid industrial demand growth may lead to a "Supply Deficit" in the global market, a positive factor for prices.


 

Risks and Challenges to Watch

Investment always carries risk, even with safe havens. Precautions for 2025 include:

  • Hawkish Surprise: If global inflation does not fall as expected and central banks (especially the Fed) must keep rates "Higher for Longer," this would be the most severe negative factor for both metals.

  • Strong Economic Growth: If the global economy recovers strongly without a recession, investors might dump safe assets (Gold/Silver) to move capital into riskier assets (like Stocks) that offer higher yields.

  • Silver's Volatility: Investors interested in silver bars must realize that silver is significantly more volatile than gold. One must be able to stomach sharp price swings.


 

Insights for Retail Investors

Based on data from international precious metal experts (e.g., Kitco, Money Metals Exchange, Forbes), the Association summarizes key points for retail investors:

1. How volatile are "Silver Bars" per gram? The answer is: "Very High." Whether measured in grams or troy ounces (approx. 31.1 grams), silver's volatility is significantly higher than gold's.

  • Reason - Smaller Market: The silver market is much smaller than gold's, meaning large trades can impact prices more drastically.

  • Reason - Dual Nature: Silver is driven by (1) Investment and (2) Industry. If the economy slows, industrial demand drops, which can drag silver prices down even if investment demand for a safe haven rises.

2. "Limited" Sources for Buying Gold and Silver in Thailand

  • Gold Bars:

    • Easy to find: Thailand has a robust gold trading system.

    • Sources: Leading gold shops (members of the Gold Traders Association - GTA) or the Thai Gem and Jewelry Traders Association (TGJTA), particularly in Yaowarat or nationwide branches.

    • Small Sizes: Available for retail investors, e.g., 1 gram, 1 Salung, or 1 Baht (15.244 grams).

    • Alternatives: "Gold Savings" apps with leading companies allow gradual accumulation.

  • Silver Bars:

    • Harder to find: The retail market for silver bars in Thailand is not as widespread as gold.

    • Sources: Specialized Precious Metal Traders (e.g., Ausiris, MTS Gold Silver) usually sell standard international bars (traded in Ounces or Kilograms).

    • Sizes: The smallest common international sizes are 1 oz coins or 10 oz bars.

    • Warning: The Association warns against buying via unverified online platforms due to high risks of fraud and counterfeiting.


 

The Bottom Line: 4 Essentials Before Buying "Gold" and "Silver" Bars

investing in Physical Bullion differs from digital systems. The Association emphasizes 4 factors investors must thoroughly understand:

1. Purity Standards You are buying "the weight of pure metal," not just a block of metal.

  • Gold: 96.5% (23.16K) is the Thai standard (highest liquidity locally, traded in "Baht" weight). 99.99% (24K) is the International/LBMA standard (referenced directly against Spot Price).

  • Silver: 99.9% (999 Fine) is the international standard for Investment Grade.

2. Price Mechanism: Spot Price, Premium, and Spread The price on the screen (Spot) is not the price you pay.

  • Spot Price: The global market price at that moment.

  • Premium: The added cost (manufacturing, logistics, profit). Note: Smaller bars carry a higher premium percentage than larger bars.

  • Spread: The gap between the "Buyback Price" and the "Selling Price."

    • Gold: Has a narrower spread (especially Thai 96.5%).

    • Silver: Naturally has a much wider spread.

3. The VAT Distinction - Most Important! This is the crucial difference for Thai investors:

  • Gold Bars: Trading gold bars (96.5% purity and up) in Thailand is VAT Exempt (0%).

  • Silver Bars: Silver is classified as an "Industrial Good"; thus, it is subject to 7% VAT on every purchase.

    • Impact: If you buy 100 Baht worth of silver, you pay 107 Baht. Global silver prices must rise more than 7% just for you to break even. This is a massive cost barrier for physical silver in Thailand compared to gold.

4. Liquidity & Reputable Dealers "Selling back" is as important as "Buying."

  • Liquidity: Gold (96.5%) is highly liquid and convertible to cash at almost any standard gold shop. Silver has much lower liquidity; buyback locations are limited, and prices are often suppressed (Wide Spread).

  • Best Principle: "Buy where you sell." Always buy from reputable dealers (TGJTA/GTA members) because they guarantee the buyback of their own products.


 

For 2025, the Association views both Gold and Silver bars as attractive investments, but they play distinct roles:

  • Gold Bars: Ideal for "Hedging" against inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and currency depreciation. It is a primary asset for "Store of Value" that every portfolio should hold.

  • Silver Bars: Ideal for investors who see potential in the "Growth of Future Industries" (Green Energy, EV). However, investors must possess a high risk tolerance for "Extreme Volatility" and understand the "7% VAT Cost."

We recommend that members and investors diversify their portfolios appropriately and closely monitor global economic news, particularly central bank statements, which will define the market direction in 2025.

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